Seeing Florida flip to McCain on the 538 projection is creeping me out. Still hoping the core victory formation of PA/CO/VA holds up (actually, I suppose you can boil it down to PA/VA and keep things Eastern), but the falloff is scary.
McCain has quite openly neglected to fund his GOTV effort in exchange for advertising parity over the last 72 hours; he is assuming that some combination of outside money, church groups, and Obama’s own success publicizing the election will bring his voters to the polls. I’d like to think this – along with early voting in CO/FL – should be a difference maker, but in the primaries it took all of Obama’s efforts just to deliver his pre-election polling. Hell, they were leading TX by so much they moved resources to OH.
The entire election seems to be leading up to an Obama victory. McCain looks as dynamic as Bob Dole, Sarah Palin has become a caricature of Tina Fey playing Sarah Palin (and, amazingly, seems to get dumber as the campaign goes forward), and the rats are deserting the Republican ship. Not since Clinton II has any candidate had this sort of lead within a hundred days of the election, and by all logic a 7+% lead in PA should be insurmountable at this point. But it is still making me awfully nervous.
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